Refugee Claim Outcomes by Nationality – Q1 2025 (Canada)

Summary: Canada’s IRB Q1 2025 data show India with the highest claim volume (3,118), while Afghanistan, Eritrea, Burundi, Ethiopia, and Iran recorded 100% approval rates (no negative decisions issued in the period). Türkiye combined high volume with a ~96% approval rate, and Iran stood out with 874 claims and 817 positive decisions.

Update date: 2025-07-19
Source: IRB
Program: Refugees

Key Volumes (Q1 2025)

India: 3,118 (Positive: 493 | Negative: 532 | Other: 2,093)

Mexico: 2,260 (Positive: 886 | Negative: 538 | Other: 836)

Türkiye: 1,361 (Positive: 1,208 | Negative: 51 | Other: 102)

Haiti: 1,169 (Positive: 684 | Negative: 338 | Other: 147)

Iran: 874 (Positive: 817 | Negative: 0 | Other: 57)

Highest Approval Rates (Positive ÷ [Positive + Negative])

Afghanistan: 100% (497/497; Negatives: 0)

Eritrea: 100% (34/34; Negatives: 0)

Burundi: 100% (143/143; Negatives: 0)

Ethiopia: 100% (329/329; Negatives: 0)

Iran: 100% (817/817; Negatives: 0)

Türkiye: ~95.9% (1,208/1,259)

Comparative Insights

Volume vs. outcomes:

India had the largest caseload but only a ~48.1% approval rate (493/1,025), showing mixed outcomes.

Mexico and Haiti recorded ~62.2% and ~66.9% approval, respectively.

High-risk nationalities:

The 100% approval cohort (Afghanistan, Eritrea, Burundi, Ethiopia, Iran) reflects countries with acute human rights risks, producing strong, consistent claims.

Processing signals:

High “Other” outcomes—India (2,093) and Mexico (836)—suggest large pending inventories, pointing to caseflow pressure and potential adjudication lags.

Independent Analysis & Implications

Positive impacts:

High recognition rates for certain nationalities demonstrate consistent application of protection standards.

Data can guide the IRB and settlement agencies to prioritize triage, expertise, and resources for high-merit cohorts.

Risks and constraints:

100% approval rates may reflect case timing and pending inventories, so perfection should be interpreted cautiously.

Large “Other” categories point to backlogs and potential delays in hearings, which ripple into housing, work permits, and integration services.

Mixed outcomes for India highlight the need for stronger country-of-origin information and consistent guidance to avoid disparities.

Method Notes

Totals reflect Positive + Negative + Other.

Approval rates are calculated as Positive ÷ (Positive + Negative), excluding “Other.”

Cases listed as “--” were treated as zero, which may understate pending files.

Closing

Canada’s Q1 2025 refugee data show both the scale of claims from countries like India and Mexico, and the overwhelmingly strong cases from countries such as Afghanistan, Eritrea, Burundi, Ethiopia, Iran, and Türkiye. As volumes rise, backlog management, clear evidentiary standards, and transparent reporting will remain central to maintaining fairness and timeliness.

Tags: Canada immigration, IRB, Refugees, Asylum, Q1 2025, Refugee claims, Approval rates, Iran, Türkiye, India, Mexico, Haiti, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Burundi, Ethiopia, Human rights, Backlog, Case processing